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Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion

Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion

Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion

A Guide for Decision-Makers
Clifford Young, Ipsos Public Affairs
Kathryn Ziemer, Ipsos Public Affairs
July 2024
Paperback
9781108790000
$34.99
USD
Paperback
USD
Hardback

    A vast literature exists on theories of public opinion - how to measure, analyze, predict, and influence it; however, there is no synthesis of best practices for interpreting public opinion: existing knowledge is disparate and spread across many disciplines. Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion presents a systematic analytical approach for understanding, predicting, and engaging public opinion. It tells the story through the eyes of the pollster and draws an analytical road map for examining public opinion, both conceptually and practically. Providing a theoretical and conceptual foundation, as well as debunking popular myths, this book delves into the science of polling, offering tools analysts can use to assess the quality of polls. It also introduces methods that can be used to predict elections and other socio-political outcomes while understanding the nuances of messaging, engaging, and moving public opinion.

    • Provides real-world case studies on different applications of public opinion and polling offering greater context for understanding how to analyze public opinion
    • Organizes the work of the pollster into three buckets. First as the Data scientist (to ensure robust estimates); Second as Fortune teller (to predict) and the third as the spin doctor (to convince)
    • Brings under one umbrella the multiple disciplines that compose the pollster work

    Product details

    July 2024
    Hardback
    9781108479554
    200 pages
    229 × 152 × 18 mm
    0.476kg
    Not yet published - available from February 2025

    Table of Contents

    • 1. The Three-Hatted Pollster
    • Part I Fundamentals of Public Opinion:
    • 2. What is Public Opinion?
    • 3. Attitude Formation at the Individual Level
    • 4. When Public Opinion is Stable and When it is Not
    • Part II. The Pollster as Data Scientist:
    • 5. Understanding Bias and Error
    • 6. Assessing a Single Poll in the 2016 US Presidential Election
    • 7. The Case of Grexit and Assessing the Polls in Aggregate
    • Part III. The Pollster as Fortune Teller:
    • 8. Cognitive Biases in Prediction
    • 9. Triangulated Election Prediction
    • 10. Public Opinion as a Decision Input for Other Outcomes
    • Part IV. The Pollster as Spin Doctor:
    • 11. Engaging Public Opinion: Theory and Practice
    • 12. Communicating in the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election
    • 13. The Pollster in Society.
      Authors
    • Clifford Young , Ipsos Public Affairs

      Clifford Young is President of Ipsos Public Affairs in the United States and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS. He is an expert on consumer and public opinion trends, corporate reputation, elections and scenario construction. He also oversees Ipsos' media partnerships, including ABC News, Axios, NPR, Thomson Reuters, USA Today, the Washington Post, among others.

    • Kathryn Ziemer , Ipsos Public Affairs

      Kathryn Ziemer is a Clinical Psychologist and Clinical Director at Old Town Psychology. She founded Old Town Psychology in 2018 and has built it into an award-winning mental health clinic that combines research and clinical work. She is an expert on attitude formation, emotion development, cognitive biases, and behavior change. She previously worked as a Research Scientist at Ipsos Public Affairs.