Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling
Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling
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USDFocusing on the physics of the catastrophe process and addressed directly to advanced students, this innovative textbook quantifies dozens of perils, both natural and man-made, and covers the latest developments in catastrophe modelling. Combining basic statistics, applied physics, natural and environmental sciences, civil engineering, and psychology, the text remains at an introductory level, focusing on fundamental concepts for a comprehensive understanding of catastrophe phenomenology and risk quantification. A broad spectrum of perils are covered, including geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological, biological, extraterrestrial, technological and socio-economic, as well as events caused by domino effects and global warming. Following industry standards, the text provides the necessary tools to develop a CAT model from hazard to loss assessment. Online resources include a CAT risk model starter-kit and a CAT risk modelling 'sandbox' with Python Jupyter tutorial. Every process, described by equations, (pseudo)codes and illustrations, is fully reproducible, allowing students to solidify knowledge through practice.
- Comprehensive overview of 42 natural and man-made perils, providing a comprehensive 'go to' text on catastrophe risk modelling
- Step-by-step guidance on how to build a simplified CAT risk model from scratch
- Hazard and risk assessed probabilistically, following the standard methods used by reinsurers, catastrophe risk model vendors, and civil protection agencies
- Simple models provided for dozens of perils, in the form of analytical expressions, simple algorithms and pseudocodes
- Catastrophe ontology, based on first principle rules and commonalities between perils, that describes any peril following the same modelling procedure, from hazard to risk
- Text enlivened with historical and cultural references
- Consideration of future horizons in modelling, including coverage of more speculative or complex perils such as asteroid impacts, pest infestations, social unrest, cascading failures, complex Earth systems with the role of global warming quantified
Reviews & endorsements
'Professor Mignan has the benefit of substantial insurance industry experience to complement his academic achievements. This is a timely book, which incorporates the important lessons from the major disasters of recent years, and should be a valuable guide for students of catastrophe modelling.' Gordon Woo, Moody's/RMS
'This book is a definitive guide to catastrophe risk modelling, expertly covering all major perils and their interconnected cascade effects. Its remarkably clear pedagogical style, with numerous concrete examples and worked-out models, makes it an invaluable resource for understanding complex risks. It combines comprehensive insights with practical step-by-step instructions combining physical modelling, concrete engineering implementations and the relevant decision-making and financial economic dimensions. I took great pleasure in exploring its extraordinary rich content and I am sure that it will become the key reference for professionals, academics, and students.' Didier Sornette, Southern University of Science and Technology
Product details
November 2024Hardback
9781009437387
368 pages
261 × 208 × 22 mm
1.07kg
Temporarily unavailable - available from TBC
Table of Contents
- Foreword
- Preface
- Acronyms and Symbols
- Part I. Basics of CAT Modelling:
- 1. Overview of catastrophe risks
- 2. Probabilistic hazard assessment
- 3. Probabilistic risk assessment
- Part II. Advanced CAT Modelling:
- 4. Dynamic hazard modelling
- 5. Modelling of cascading effects
- Part III. CAT Risk Management:
- 6. CAT risk management
- Reference
- Index.
