Decisions under Uncertainty
Decisions under Uncertainty
To better understand the core concepts of probability and to see how they affect real-world decisions about design and system performance, engineers and scientists might want to ask themselves the following questions: what exactly is meant by probability? What is the precise definition of the 100-year load and how is it calculated? What is an 'extremal' probability distribution? What is the Bayesian approach? How is utility defined? How do games fit into probability theory? What is entropy? How do I apply these ideas in risk analysis? Starting from the most basic assumptions, this 2005 book develops a coherent theory of probability and broadens it into applications in decision theory, design, and risk analysis. This book is written for engineers and scientists interested in probability and risk. It can be used by undergraduates, graduate students, or practicing engineers.
- Covers risk from an engineering perspective
- Lots of real engineering case studies
- Assumes only basic maths as prerequisite
Reviews & endorsements
Review of the hardback: 'This book takes a very interesting approach to the treatment of uncertainty and its role in decision making. The author, who has extensive background in both academia and industry, uses an intuitive argument whenever possible to derive common laws of probability … This approach has a distinct advantage for such use in contrast to the more traditional mathematical foundation, from which most engineering students are discouraged by a perceived lack of applicability. Based on the author's experience, it seems that the book would fit best into an undergraduate civil engineering curriculum, since applications are focused on decisions for the built environment.' Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Review of the hardback: 'The comprehensiveness of the book is striking. In an impressive manner the author manages to address the beginner as well as providing useful knowledge on advanced topics such as game theory and entropy. … In summary, the author has succeeded in providing an up-to-date and comprehensive text on decision techniques that ought to be extensively used in engineering education and practice. In particular, the current trend toward performance-based engineering and advanced simulation models should be clearly be complemented with probabilistic analysis to account for uncertainties and decision analysis to achieve optimized designs.' Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
Review of the hardback: '… Ian Jordaan … has made an important contribution to humanity by writing this comprehensive and thoroughly readable textbook on the subject … After reading the book one is much better prepared to recognize and effectively address the decision-making process in ambiguous situations where there is considerable uncertainty and the risks are high.' David A. Breslin
Product details
July 2011Paperback
9780521369978
690 pages
244 × 170 × 35 mm
1.08kg
Available
Table of Contents
- 1. Uncertainty and decision-making
- 2. The concept of probability
- 3. Distributions and expectation
- 4. The concept of utility
- 5. Games and optimization
- 6. Entropy
- 7. Mathematical aspects
- 8. Exchangeability and inference
- 9. Extremes
- 10. Risk, safety and reliability
- 11. Data and simulation
- 12. Conclusion
- Appendix.
